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In October, U.S. trailer orders rose by 34% compared to September, reaching 15,970 units. While this increase aligns with typical seasonal patterns, the numbers are 55% lower than the same period last year, marking the weakest October performance since FTR began tracking trailer data in 2013.
Even though manufacturers have opened their order books for 2025, demand has not yet met expectations and is struggling to gain momentum.
The challenging freight market has significantly impacted trailer demand throughout 2024. So far this year, trailer orders have totalled 108,977 units, a 36% drop compared to 2023. This averages out to about 10,898 units per month.
Trailer production in October rose by 8% compared to September, reaching 16,603 units, but this is still 38% lower than last year’s output for the same month. Production levels remain 34% below the five-year October average, making it the second-lowest monthly output since August 2020.
In October, total trailer orders fell slightly below production levels, reducing backlogs by 1,017 units to a total of 82,089 units. With production increasing and backlogs shrinking, the backlog-to-build ratio dropped to 4.9 months, its lowest point since June 2020.
This metric, now about a month below pre-2020 averages, highlights growing challenges for manufacturers, who may need to scale back production if demand doesn’t rebound soon.
According to Dan Moyer, Senior Analyst for Commercial Vehicles, the steep decline in trailer orders stems from fleets focusing their investments on trucks (Class 8 power units) rather than trailers. This shift is likely due to reduced profitability in the freight market or adjustments in trade cycles.
Some companies may also be delaying trailer purchases in anticipation of lower prices or waiting for post-election market clarity.
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Several factors are expected to pressure trailer production for the remainder of 2024:
If trailer orders for 2025 fail to pick up soon, manufacturers may need to implement further production cuts in 2024 or extend them into the next year.
While trailer demand has fallen, orders for Class 8 trucks—the powerful vehicles that pull trailers—paint a different picture.
Class 8 truck orders in North America rose by 6% year-over-year during September and October, highlighting a clear difference in spending priorities. Fleets seem to be focusing on renewing or upgrading their truck fleets while postponing trailer investments.
The trailer market remains under pressure, and manufacturers may face further adjustments unless demand rebounds in the coming months.
